Mr.Sathiyamoorthy  was the guest speaker and he presented his analysis on the situation in               Sri Lanka and Maldives . An active discussion followed . Major points are given below :

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s policies are guided solely by its supreme national interests irrespective of who is in  power . Sri Lanka’s top priority is economic development and is not very keen to discuss Human rights issues with other nations . China fits in perfectly in this context .

Economic development

While Sri Lanka looks towards India for national security , it is ready to work with anyone willing  to invest in Sri Lanka for its economic development . Sri Lankan Govt is not really worried about the repayment of foreign debt probably because it knows that most of the debt could be written off . China is willing to invest massively in Sri Lanka and hence has acquired considerable clout in   Sri Lanka . India can not afford to make similar investment in Sri Lanka and hence it is not possible for India to compete with China in Sri Lanka on the economic front .

Colombo port city and Hambantota  were two projects launched by President Mahinda  Rajapaksa with Chinese assistance and President Sirisena’s coalition had made serious allegations of corruption during the election campaign  and had  even threatened  to  cancel the contracts if his coalition wins the election . Within months of taking power,  President Sirisena  gave approval for continuing the projects by changing the condition to “ 99 year lease “ and making the Chinese investors equity -holders  after writing off part of the debt so that the debt will be reduced considerably . Colombo port city will be developed as a financial centre and Hambantota port will be an important link in the OBOR project of China .  In short , it means that China will continue the projects with possibilities of land development for off-setting its investment .  However , development is no substitute to democracy .

The rebuilding of Colombo city has taken place very quickly after the end of the civil war .

Will India be able to do similar things for the development of Sri Lanka  ? . Most likely NOT .  India should have a clear game plan if it wants to succeed in Sri Lanka .Sadly , India  does not have a plan and  the capacity , courage and killer instinct  to succeed . India’s foreign policy with respect to Sri Lanka is not really  coherent .

Tamil issue

C.V.Vigneswaran , Chief Minster of Northern province  says that  federalism  within the frame work of  a new constitution adopted through referendum is the only solution for the ethnic problems . Sambandhan also holds the same view . However , there are differences in their approach with respect to the situation of Northern  and Eastern provinces . As it appears now , a  new constitution may not come in to force in the near future .

Both Vigneswaran and Sambandhan highlight the need to deal with the human rights issues related to the conflict . However , the Sri Lankan Govt does not appear to be in a hurry to deal with Human rights issues .

Maldives

Maldives does not have a history of democracy and it will not be possible to impose democracy in a nation which does not believe in the independence of democratic institutions . Mohamed Nasheed was the first elected President  of Maldives and he was ousted through questionable means . Nasheed has vowed that he will contest the next Presidential election in 2018 although he is not eligible to contesting the election at   present .

A new alignment among Qasim Ibrahim the opposition leader, Nasheed and Maumon Abdul Gayoom ( half brother of Yameen ) is gaining strength to overthrow President Yameen .  Qasim Ibrahim had piloted  a motion in the Parliament to impeach the Speaker Abdulla Maseeh Mohamed ( a close ally of President Yameen ) . The motion failed and Qasim Ibrahim was arrested and remanded immediately . The political situation in Maldives is unpredictable .

China is investing massively in Maldives for its economic development . Maldives has also permitted Chinese companies to recover land from the sea and have it on lease .  Maldives has given contracts to Chinese companies to complete and expand  the Male airport abandoned by GMR . It is also possible that Chinese companies may be allowed to develop commercial ports in chosen islands . This will fit  in perfectly with OBOR .

 

Reported by C.M.A.Nayar

 

15^th April 2017